December 2014: analysis of mortgage loan rates.

There is always time to put your loan offer under the Christmas tree. Indeed, the trend remains downward for this beginning of December 2014 for durations of less than 20 years, which are all below the 3% mark and rates “stagnate” at 3.25% for 25 years.

Evolution of mortgage loan rates – December 2014

Evolution of mortgage loan rates - December 2014

This situation, however very favorable, has still not had the expected effect on the real estate market. Indeed, for old real estate, the number of sales is slightly down with 725,000 transactions in a slippery year according to the bank, while the new home market is experiencing a record of weak sales, since it should end up under the bar of 40,000 housing starts.

The big winner of this drop in rates is therefore the credit buy-back market, some brokers are already starting to announce that more than 30% of their production is carried out in this sector.

It is certain that any borrower holding a mortgage with a rate of more than 4% is potentially in the target of an attractive loan repurchase. This opens up this market to a still significant number of owners.

2015 already promises to follow the same logic of historically low rates. With all the same, fewer significant new decreases compared to 2014, since the large decreases are now behind us.

Fixed rates in 2015

Fixed rates in 2015

We should therefore stay at the rate floor levels, since the downward pressures at European level are still largely predominant: almost zero inflation, little growth, maintenance of a proactive LLB policy to revive economic activity…

One of the parameters of change may come from the very nature of the loans. In fact, the Basel Committee, in charge of international banking supervision, has announced the possible end of fixed rates in 2015. This body wishes, in this way, to impose on banks an increased safety margin to face the risks linked to interest rate variations. on the financial markets.

The risk of rising rates will then be shared by the borrowers. As much as this news will have little impact on countries like Spain or England where the revisable rates are more widely used. As much in France, this can sound like a brake for the mortgage market, where these products are not yet part of the financial products traditionally bought by consumers…